Active Funds Don't Work - The Case For Index-Investing

We couldn't agree more with Warren Buffett3. Only talk in terms of pretax returns. With high
about the wisdom of using index-based funds forturnover the after-tax returns of their active
most institutional and individual investors. For ourfunds are typically much worse.
investors we focus on strategic asset allocationAdvantages of index-based funds (relative to
and use index-based funds and exchange tradedactive funds)
funds (ETF's) to get exposure to each asset class.1. Much lower costs. We build diversified portfolios
Most investors and advisors use "activelyfor our clients across multiple asset classes where
managed" funds where a portfolio managerthe funds we use have an average expense ratio
attempts to beat the index by picking stocks,of only.2%-.3%. The typical active equity mutual
industry sectors, and timing the market.fund has an expense ratio of around 1.2%. Many
Unfortunately the vast majority of these activelyactive funds also have up-front sales loads of as
managed funds over time lag the index they arehigh as 5.75% (ouch!).
trying to beat, sometimes badly. Why do most2. Lower turnover. Many active funds have high
investors continue to bet on them? It is theturnover ratios as the portfolio manager makes
triumph of hope, greed, and massive mutual fundnumerous trades trying to beat the market. This
industry advertising over reason. It is also becauseresults in higher transaction costs.
they are not aware of the poor track record of3. More tax efficient. Index-based funds and ETF's
active funds relative to the indices they are tryingare significantly more tax efficient that active
to beat. Standard and Poors updates its studyfunds due to their lower turnover ratios.
comparing the performance of active mutual4. More transparent. You always know what you
funds relative to the index funds they are tryingown in an index fund. With active funds you aren't
to beat over rolling 5-year periods. It is availablesure what kinds of individual stock bets, industry
on their website. The financial services industrybets, or other bets they are making.
does not want you to see this data. The industry5. More diversified. Index-based funds tend to
makes much more money on expensive activelyhave many more individual securities in the fund.
managed funds than on low-cost index funds.6. No style drift. Active funds often drift away
This Standard and Poors study is a very powerfulfrom the size/style they are supposed to use in
set of data in favor of index-based investing, andan attempt to chase better performance in other
against active funds. For domestic stocks fundsareas. When you are building a portfolio based on
about one-third of active funds beat the index,asset allocation (like we do) you want each asset
among international funds less than 15% of theclass to actually represent that asset class, and
active funds beat the index, and among severalnot to try to sneak into other areas in an
classes of bond funds less than 20% of theattempt to chase short-term performance.
active funds beat the index. This data is generous7. More consistent performance. With active funds
to the active funds because it only shows theyou have "relative performance risk" that you
5-year record. Over longer periods of time evendon't have to worry about with an index-based
fewer active funds are able to keep up with thefund. Active funds often lag several percentage
index. It is also being generous because this datapoints (or worse) behind the index when their
is tracking pre-tax returns. Due to their higheractive bets go bad.
turnover active funds are much less tax efficient8. Better performance. See the data on the
than index funds. The percentage of active fundsStandard and Poors study.
that are able to beat the index on an after-taxWhat if I only invest in the good 5-star active
basis is considerably lower than shown here.funds with great performance?
Some people say that the large-cap U.S. marketsUnfortunately past fund performance in funds is
are very efficient and so this data is notnot predictive of future performance. Numerous
surprising, but that small-caps and internationalstudies have shown this to be true. Others point
emerging markets are less efficient and thereforeout that it would take decades to statistically
there is more opportunity for good activeprove that a manager's good track record was
managers. This data refutes that as well.due to skill and not luck. Many studies have shown
Tricks of the Trade at the Mutual Fundthat even the Morningstar famous star rating
Companiessystem fails to provide any significant predictive
The industry has several tricks to make it seemvalue for future performance. In fact a strategy
like their active fund performance seem better.of always buying the funds with the best recent
1. Merge or close funds with poor performance.3-5 year performance is often a horrible strategy
They regularly take funds with lousy records andbecause it ends up causing you to chase good
close them down or merge them into a fund withrecent (past) returns, which can quickly turn in to
a good track record. This wipes out the badbad performance as most strategies and styles
fund's track record or magically transforms it into"revert to the mean" over time. Are the portfolio
a good record by merging it. This creates what ismanager(s) on the fund still the exact same now
called "survivorship bias" in the numbers. Theas when the past track record was created? Is
Standard and Poors data above corrects for thisthe fund still the same size as it was when the
bias.track record was created (it's much more difficult
2. Advertise only the funds with good recentwith a larger fund)? The single best predictor of
performance. It seems like all you ever hearfuture performance is the fund's expense ratio
about is the great funds all these companies have,(lower is better).
since those are the only ones they talk about.