| Managed Futures describes and industry that is | | | | 4. Ease of Global Diversification - The |
| made up of professional money mangers who | | | | establishment of global futures exchanges and the |
| trade in investments such as commodities, | | | | accompanying increase in actively traded contract |
| futures, and foreign currency in lieu of traditional | | | | offerings has allowed trading advisors to diversify |
| investment s such as stocks and bonds. These | | | | their portfolios by geography as well as by |
| money managers are called Commodity Trading | | | | product. For example, managed futures accounts |
| Advisors(CTAs) | | | | can participate in at least 150 different markets |
| | | | worldwide, including stock indexes, financial |
| | | | instruments, agricultural products, precious and |
| Unlike commodity or stockbrokers who makes | | | | nonferrous metals, currencies, and energy |
| recommendations on individual commodities or | | | | products. Trading advisors thus have ample |
| stocks, Commodity Trading Advisors have a | | | | opportunity for profit potential and risk reduction |
| proven track record and trading style,and are | | | | among a broad array of non-correlated markets. |
| under strict regulation with the NFA National | | | | |
| Futures Association. | | | | Managing Risk |
| | | | One of the major arguments for diversifying into |
| Whether the economy is in a recession, an | | | | managed futures is their potential to lower |
| economic boom or is stagnant…whether | | | | portfolio risk. Such an argument is supported by |
| interest rates rise or fall…whether there is an | | | | many academic studies of the effects of |
| economic crisis or stability…in virtually any | | | | combining traditional asset classes with alternative |
| economic environment, professionally managed | | | | investments such as managed futures. Dr John |
| futures, unlike stocks, can potentially prosper. | | | | Lintner of Harvard University is perhaps the most |
| | | | cited for his research in this area. |
| | | | |
| Defining Managed Futures | | | | Taken as an alternative investment class on its |
| | | | own, the managed-futures class has produced |
| The term "managed futures" refers | | | | comparable returns in the decade before 2005. |
| to a 30-year-old industry made up of professional | | | | For example, between 1993 and 2002, managed |
| money managers who are known as | | | | futures had a compound average annual return of |
| "commodity trading advisors" (CTAs). | | | | 6.9%, while for U.S. stocks (based on the |
| CTAs are required to register with the U.S. | | | | S&P 500 total return index) the return was |
| government's Commodity Futures Trading | | | | 9.3% and 9.5% for U.S. Treasury bonds (based |
| Commission (CFTC) before they can offer | | | | on the Lehman Brothers long-term Treasury bond |
| themselves to the public as money managers. | | | | index). In terms of risk-adjusted returns, managed |
| CTAs are also required to go through an FBI | | | | futures had the smaller drawdown (a term CTAs |
| deep background check, and provide rigorous | | | | use to refer to the maximum peak-to-valley drop |
| disclosure documents (and independent audits of | | | | in an equities' performance history) among the |
| financial statements every year), which are | | | | three groups between Jan 1980 and May 2003. |
| reviewed by the National Futures Association | | | | During this period managed futures had a -15.7% |
| (NFA), a self-regulatory watchdog organization. | | | | maximum drawdown while the Nasdaq Composite |
| | | | Index had one of -75% and the S&P 500 |
| CTAs generally manage their clients' assets using | | | | stock index had one of -44.7%. |
| a proprietary trading system, or a discretionary | | | | |
| method, that may involve going long or short in | | | | An additional benefit of managed futures includes |
| futures contracts in areas such as metals (gold, | | | | risk reduction through portfolio diversification by |
| silver), grains (soybeans, corn, wheat), equity | | | | means of negative correlation between asset |
| indexes (S&P futures, Dow futures, | | | | groups. As an asset class, managed futures |
| NASDAQ 100 futures), soft commodities (cotton, | | | | programs are largely inversely correlated with |
| cocoa, coffee, sugar) as well as foreign currency | | | | stocks and bonds. For example, during periods of |
| and U.S government bond futures. In the past | | | | inflationary pressure, investing in managed futures |
| several years, money invested in managed | | | | programs that track the metals markets (like gold |
| futures has more than doubled and is estimated | | | | and silver) or foreign currency futures can provide |
| to continue to grow in the coming years if hedge | | | | a substantial hedge to the damage such an |
| fund returns flatten and stocks underperform. | | | | environment can have on equities and bonds. In |
| | | | other words, if stocks and bonds underperform |
| Benefits of Managed Futures | | | | due to rising inflation concerns, certain managed |
| 1. Reduced Portfolio Volatility Risk - The primary | | | | futures programs might outperform in these |
| benefit of adding a managed futures component | | | | same market conditions. Hence, combining |
| to a diversified investment portfolio is that it may | | | | managed futures with these other asset groups |
| decrease portfolio volatility risk. This risk-reduction | | | | may optimize your allocation of investment capital. |
| contribution to the portfolio is possible because of | | | | |
| the low to slightly negative correlation of managed | | | | Evaluating CTAs |
| futures with equities and bonds. One of the key | | | | Before investing in any asset class or with an |
| tenets of Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed | | | | individual money manager you should make some |
| by the Nobel Prize economist Dr. Harry M. | | | | important assessments, and much of the |
| Markowitz, is that more efficient investment | | | | information you need to do so can be found in |
| portfolios can be created by diversifying among | | | | the CTA's disclosure document. Disclosure |
| asset categories with low to negative correlations. | | | | documents must be provided to you upon |
| | | | request even if you are still considering an |
| 2. Potential for Enhanced Portfolio Returns - While | | | | investment with the CTA. The disclosure |
| managed futures can decrease portfolio volatility | | | | document will contain important information about |
| risk, they can also simultaneously enhance overall | | | | the CTA's trading plan and fees (which can vary |
| portfolio performance. Adding managed futures to | | | | substantially between CTAs, but generally are 2% |
| a traditional portfolio can help to improve overall | | | | for management and 20% for performance |
| investment quality. This is substantiated by an | | | | incentive). In addition, most CTA's require large |
| extensive bank of academic research, beginning | | | | minimum investments, however investors can get |
| with the landmark study of Dr. John Lintner of | | | | around this buy going through a commodities |
| Harvard University, in which he wrote that | | | | brokerage firm that has an agreement with |
| “The combined portfolios of stocks (or | | | | various CTA's and acts as a liaison between the |
| stocks and bonds) after including judicious | | | | investor and the CTA. Another benefit of working |
| investments…in leveraged managed futures | | | | with a broker, is their ability to create a CTA |
| accounts show substantially less risk at every | | | | diversified porfolio to match your goals and risk |
| possible level of expected return than portfolios | | | | tollerence. |
| of stocks (or stocks and bonds) alone.” | | | | |
| (Lintner, John, “The Potential Role of | | | | In Conclusion |
| Managed Commodity Financial Futures Accounts | | | | Managed Futures can help: |
| (and/or Funds) in Portfolios of Stocks and | | | | |
| Bonds,” Annual Conference of Financial | | | | 1. Help improve portfolio performance |
| Analysts Federation, May 1983) | | | | |
| | | | 2. Reduce portfolio volatility risk |
| 3. Ability to Take Advantage of Any Economic | | | | |
| Environment - Managed futures trading advisors | | | | 3. Non-correlated investment (to stocks & |
| can take advantage of price trends. They can | | | | bonds) |
| buy futures positions in anticipation of a rising | | | | |
| market or sell futures positions if they anticipate a | | | | 4. Historically serve as a natural hedge against |
| falling market. For example, during periods of | | | | inflation. |
| hyperinflation, hard commodities such as gold, | | | | |
| silver, oil, grains, and livestock tend to do well, as | | | | 5. Portfolios incorporating Managed Futures |
| do the major world currencies. During deflationary | | | | showsubstantially less risk at every possible level |
| times, futures provide an opportunity to profit by | | | | ofexpected return than portfolios of stocks (or |
| selling into a declining market with the expectation | | | | stocks &bonds) alone.* |
| of buying, or closing out the position, at a lower | | | | |
| price. Trading advisors can even use strategies | | | | * Chicago Board of Trade, “Managed |
| employing options on futures contracts that allow | | | | Futures”, Publication (2003 edition). |
| for profit potential in flat or neutral markets. | | | | |
| However, profits are not guaranteed, and there is | | | | Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not |
| risk of substantial loss. | | | | appropriate for all investors. |
| | | | |