Nightmare in Bonds and Bond Funds?

When interest rates are low and stocks are falling,picture JKL Bond Fund. This mutual fund holds a
bonds in the form of bond funds look attractiveportfolio of long-term bonds, on average maturing
to many investors looking for higher income.in 20+ years. The bonds are of high quality, and
Quality bond funds can offer dividend yields ofthe fund's dividend yield is 5%. Think early 2009.
5% or more when bank CD's are paying aboutNow visualize a nightmare. You buy shares in JKL
2%, and money market rates are even lower.Bond Fund, and then over the next couple of
Look twice before you leap into a bond fund in ayears interest rates double. New investors can
low interest rate environment. Interest rate risknow buy JKL Bond Fund and get a dividend yield
looms, and could be a future nightmare forof 10%. What does this mean to you?
investors.Bond investors will bid down the price of the
There is a huge risk differential between investingbonds in JKL's portfolio as interest rates rise.
in bond funds vs. money market funds or CD's atWhen interest rates hit 10%, investors can pay
the bank. The latter are very safe investments.$1000 for a new bond that pays $100 a year in
When you invest in bond funds you are investinginterest until it matures many years down the
in bonds. Interest rate risk applies. It could beroad. Then they get their $1000 back. There is no
very risky to chase higher income by buying bondreason for anyone to accept less than a 10%
funds in a low interest rate environment.yield.
Interest rates in 1981-1982 went to historicalThe value of an older bond issued at a price of
highs, well into the double digits. In 2008 and early$1000 with a fixed coupon interest rate of 5%
2009 rates hit historical lows. Many investorspaying $50 a year in interest will fall like a rock.
looking for higher income with safety looked toUsing simple math, in order to get 10% in yearly
bond funds for dividend yields of 5% vs. less thanincome from this bond, you might be willing to
1% offered by safe money market funds. Let'spay a price of $500...interest of $50 a year
look at the big picture.divided by $500 equals 10%.
The problem with investing in bonds, bond funds,If interest rates double, the share price of a fund
when interest rates are real low is three-fold.like JKL will take a big hit. Bond fund prices or
First, new bonds being issued offer historically lowvalues would not likely fall in half, but would head
coupon interest rates. Second, bonds arein that direction. This is the concept of interest
long-term in nature and their coupon rate ofrate risk, and it is real. When interest rates go up,
interest paid is fixed for the life of the bond.bond prices fall.
Third, interest rates in the economy fluctuate.DURATION is a number that measures interest
Keep in mind the following. People invest in bondsrate risk for investors. The higher the duration of
and bond funds in order to get higher income.a bond or bond fund (average duration) the
Bonds trade much like stocks do, so their pricegreater the risk. A high duration figure means that
(or value) fluctuates. When you buy shares in aa bond or bond fund's price is very sensitive to
bond fund, you are invested in a portfolio ofchanges in interest rates.
bonds.If you want relative safety in a bond fund, look
Now, with interest rates near historical lowsfor one with a low AVERAGE DURATION.