Brain-dead Mutual Fund Selection

About this time every year, the personal financeselecting a mutual fund is the expense ratio.
magazines will perform an annual ritual: Looking atFortunately, the Internet and Money's hyperlinks
how mutual funds have performed over the pastlet you rather easily get to mutual fund
year-and then using that information to suggestprospectuses, and these materials provide
which mutual funds you should pick for theexpense ratio information. This is where you want
coming year. Sadly, this work is a completeto start-and probably finish-your mutual fund
waste of time.investing. You almost can't win if you choose a
It's the class, stupidmutual fund with a very high expense ratio. You
Choosing a mutual fund, all the research dataalmost can't lose if you choose a mutual fund with
show, is actually very straightforward and simple.a very low expense ratio.
Most of your performance depends on the assetWhy not try to beat the market?
class you select. In other words, the biggest,Let me also briefly address the issue of finding a
most important, and most significant decision youmutual fund manager who generates above
make is whether you want to put money intoaverage returns. Clearly, some mutual fund
stocks, bonds, money market accounts, realmanagers, over time, have produced
estate, or some other class, such as internationalextraordinary returns-returns so high that they
stocks.more than offset even large expense ratios. The
Cost is the second factor to considerpoint you need to realize, however, is that if you
Within a given class of investments, such asdo choose to look for a star mutual fund
stocks, the research shows that the mostperformer, what you need to do right now is
significant characteristic that determines theidentify somebody who is going to be a star over
goodness of the investment is the expense ratiothe next two or three decades, not someone
charged by the mutual fund managementwho has been a star over the past two or three
company. For example, if one mutual funddecades. Long-term investing means you are
company charges you 2 percent of your fundlooking out several decades into the future-even if
balance to manage your investments and anotheryou are retired.
company charges you .2 of a percent, almostNote, too, that who performed well last year is
invariably, the mutual fund charging the lowerno indication of who is going to perform this year.
expense ratio will do better over long periods ofRepeatedly, studies have shown that last year's
time.or last quarter's hot performer is not this year's
Asset allocation for lazy peopleor this quarter's hot performer.
When you understand the importance of assetPutting my money where my mouth is
allocation and investment costs, picking a mutualHere's my personal investment strategy. I am a
fund boils down to two simple issues. The firstfirm believer in index funds. Through the late
issue is how you want to apportion your money1990s, I invested almost my entire portfolio
between stocks, bonds, and other investments.(perhaps 95 percent or more) in the widest
Typically, you want to have the majority of youravailable stock index fund available to me. In the
long-term investment money in stocks, somelate 1990s, after the stock market became
portion in bonds to reduce the volatility of yourobviously over-valued (I said this in print in books
investment portfolio, and some portion of yourlike the Millionaire Kit (Random House, 1999), I
money-perhaps your rainy day fund-in somethingbegan using balanced index funds (which index
like a money market account.both stocks and bonds).
The second issue you need to focus on in