The Strategy of Leadership is Thinking, Vision, and Planning - The Future Depends On It

Grammar speaks of events occurring in three				by racially distinct administrators. Opposition to
plains. The past was, the future will happen, and				LB1024 was high before its passing, the Governor
we live now, the present. However, operating in				faced strong opposition for signing it, the
the information age, the age of instant global				Attorney General believes it is in violation of
communication, makes the future now. Gates [1]				federal law and unconstitutional and Omaha's most
wrote we are citizens of an information society.				famous citizen, Warren Buffet, expressed his
He noted that past generations, and past societies				strong opposition.Senator Chambers is the only
found ways to gather information, get more				African-American state senator who is
work done, increase life spans, and improve their				controversial and outspoken. Many of his claims
standards of living. Time was not as critical in				include racially provocative statements against
those past ages. A message from a ruler may				police, school administrators, teachers, and fellow
take months to arrive by sea courier. The Pony				senators. By contrast, to Mayor Ryan, Senator
Express was six days. Airmail was cross-country				Chambers does not appear to have a vision
overnight. The time span between thought and				based on strategic thinking. Senator Chambers'
action are virtually unidentifiable today. Although				term in the Unicameral ends in 2008 and he
leaders rely on collective knowledge sharing,				cannot run again because of imposed term
leaders who engage in strategic thinking, imagining				limits.Morgan [10] offers some thoughts on social
events as happening rather than will happen,				construction of reality. What he writes is people
allows them to view the present as their personal				have images of themselves and these images
and organizational future.This paper considers how				unfold into their reality. Two leaders identified thus
important strategic thinking is for leaders who				far have diversely different views of reality. One
want to shape their future and the future of their				holds a vision of what can be for the city while
environment. Strategic thinking is the starting point				the other fights against change using deeply
for creating vision. Traditional planning gives way				entrenched assumptions of the power of others
to flexible organizational structures that change				to shape events.Another person, a division head
"on the fly."Strategy in past generations allowed				of a large First Data Corporation region [11],
leaders time for thinking, sensing a vision, clarifying				offered some insight into strategic thinking and
the vision, articulating it to begin considering action				being visionary. In an impromptu interview, she
plans. Accepting that the future is no longer an				held that having a focus on what is possible
event to happen later, this paper explores how				helped her rise within a company at a time when
leaders think, envision, articulate, and plan. How do				it was having serious leadership troubles. When
leaders continue to use strategy to their				everyone else was seeking safety, she sought
advantage in a rapidly changing global				innovation-providing direction when it appeared
environment? The answer is in the age of				there was none. Her member services region is
possibilities [2]. Today, as never before we are				the western United States, Canada, and Mexico.
free from traditional bonds of work, we are free				She said, "I thrive on chaos. When things look the
to choose our futures as well as shape them to				most confused, I see my division diversified,
suit our own desires and needs.This age is an				flattened, with empowered subordinate
extension of Gates' information society. We have				managers."Our dialogue continued on chaos with
the ability to choose our reality in a way that				Kim conceding she manages chaos within set
never before existed. In the past, a baker's son				organizational plans and policies. This lead to her
became a baker. However, many leaders of the				admission that she is more ordered in her
past came from unexpected places. The Biblical				expectations and spends more time planning than
King David was the young son tending sheep (1				thinking and creating vision.Strategic PlanningHill and
Samuel 16:11) and Jesus was just the carpenter's				Jones [12] discuss strategic planning with the same
son whose mother we know (Matthew 13:55) [3].				cautions of Davis [13]. One concept of planning is
Truman had leadership thrust upon him. These				doing so under uncertainties. In life and business,
people saw a point on the horizon but events				the only certain is uncertainty. Organizations
changes their vision. The age of possibilities allows				cannot plan for the future because it is
us to rewrite our future as events				unpredictable. Another consideration is planning
dictate.Accepting that we can change as events				cannot be a top-management function alone. This
dictate suggests that there is a less linear				"ivory tower" planning may result in senior leaders
structure in this image and a more chaotic				thinking in a vacuum, being enthusiastic about a
non-linear structure. Sanders [4] describes an				plan and having no operational realities. Finally,
organizational structure as a known initial condition				strategic planning often suffers because planners
but the future appears random. Using the model				have a short-range view of the current
of the "Lorenz Attractor," she presents a view of				environment missing the dynamics of the
interacting and interrelated parts that appear				competitive environment.Mintzberg, et al devotes
disorderly until a closer inspection reveals the				a section to "Planning's Unplanned Troubles." They
spiraling order hidden in the model. The Gates'				explain that planning establishes inflexibility. They
information society and the Taylor and Wacker				support the assertion presented above with the
age of possibilities do not depend on a linear				fallacy of predetermination. This fallacy says
progression of thought and action and Sanders				organizations are able to predict the direction of
holds the non-linear nature of the new science of				their environment, are able to exercise control
strategic thinking allows us to understand natural				over the environment, "or simply to assume its
order on its own terms.StrategyDoes strategy				stability." "Because analysis is not synthesis,
have some mythical or mystical property?				strategic planning has never been strategy
Leaders and leadership use the word in many				making."Reverse course a little, planning is not a
contexts, perhaps not really acknowledging what				bad thing when used in cohort with strategic
strategy is. Therefore, a simple working definition				thinking and visionary leadership. It is applying the
of strategy for this paper is the deliberate means				controlling element strategy to planning that
of attaining an outcome, being visionary.Mintzberg,				causes problems. Morgan argues in favor of plans
et al [5] explains that strategies inevitably have				and planning when created in a visionary
advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of				framework that can evolve as circumstances
setting direction is charting a course; however, the				change. What they insinuate in relating the tail of
disadvantage is narrowing vision, hiding dangers.				the "Strategic Termites" is unpredictability of
The advantage of focusing effort is coordination				organizational structure. An organization's leader
of activity; however, the disadvantage is				does not need a strategic plan to impose order.
groupthink. Having a definition of the organization				Order, like in a termite colony, emerges in an
provides understanding of the organization;				evolutionary way. Planning is not guided by plans
however, the definition may hide the complexity				rather by a sense of know what the organization
of the supporting systems. Having a strategy that				wants to ultimately achieve. Ideas, action, and
provides consistency establishes order in a way				events occur separately but self-organizing yet
that reduces ambiguity; however, creative groups				apparently disorganized groups of termites seize
appear to operate with little or no				the opportunity to initiate change.The Future
consistency.Strategy involves paradoxes as the				Depends On ItSeeing the future depends on
above paragraph suggests. One paradox tells us				foresight. Having a future view and strategically
the story of answers and questions, once you				thinking of the future creates a new paradigm,
think you have all the answers, someone changes				part of the paradoxes already discussed. One old
all the questions. Taylor and Wacker state this				paradigm suggests future thought as a prediction
paradox as, "The more you are right, the more				and development of plans based on the prediction.
wrong you will be." This contradiction confuses the				Making plans establishes policy necessary to reach
reader, if you are right, how can you be wrong?				the predicted future. When the predictions fail to
How? The speed of knowledge accelerated				materialize an organization scrambles to recover.
beyond our ability to absorb it in our traditional				Another paradigm is the invention of the future.
learning pattern.Another paradox for visionary				This means people both construe and become
leaders involves predicting the future. Leaders				constrained by the structures they enact and
who are successful predictors of the future act				change through practice. Gaspar [7] refers to the
as agents destabilizing the present. Taylor and				work of Mintzberg, et al, saying the old paradigms
Wacker explain that today's realities and				do not work in future thinking organizations. She
tomorrows expectations collide. The allocation of				tells us we must integrate a strategy that includes
resources between present and future "produce a				patterns and perspectives with planning and
massive future-based political problem with huge				positioning.Take a view of American companies
consequences for the present."Strategy at				100 years ago. Of the top 12 companies 100
WorkThe State of Nebraska recently made				years ago, ten dealt in selling commodities. Today,
National news with the passage of LB1024 that, in				of the top 12 U.S. companies, three deal in
effect, created segregated school sub-districts in				commodities. The remaining nine companies deal in
Omaha. The bill was the Unicameral's way to				services, manufacturing, and high technology [14].
defeat intercity lawsuits claiming "One City - One				The only thing certain is change and business
School District." The City of Omaha annexed				leaders must learn to cope with it in order to
several small suburban communities to its west,				manage it. Coping with change and managing it
provides police, fire, and city services to these				mean businesses can profit from it. The future of
communities; however, the communities remained				business is knowledge driven. Countries must be
independent school districts.The City of Bellevue				smart, companies must be smart, and people
annexed several Sanitary Improvement Districts				must be smart.Countries, companies, and people
(SID) to its west, provides police, fire and city				must be equally smart at the same time. To win
services to these incorporated SIDs. Previous				the future game, each of the three must
mayors and city councils of Bellevue and Papillion				anticipate and adapt to change in order to
drew arbitrary boarders marking the fringes of				manage it effectively. Mayor Ryan admitted that
the two cities school districts in, what were then,				government is slow to change. By example, he
unincorporated zones. Population growth attached				cited the city council established a steering
itself close to Bellevue. Now, Bellevue's city limits				committee to investigate whether the city
extend beyond the school district boarders.				needed to spend money for computers in the
Therefore, Bellevue claims "One City - One School				mayor's office. The city has a web presence but
District."By passing this bill, Senator Chambers [6]				the city council did not adopt an intra- and
acknowledged formal segregation of the districts.				inter-city email system until the steering
LB1024 created two super-districts, one in				committee received confirmation from
Omaha, and one in Bellevue. In Omaha, the				surrounding cities of their system usage. The
super-district has three independent sub-districts.				mayor is 72; by contrast, the average age of the
The independent sub-districts have authority over				city council is about 63. Mayor Ryan recognizes
teacher hiring, measures of teacher/student				the value of technology and aggressively seeks
success under federal No Child Left Behind, and				younger citizens to enter city government. He
administration of their own budget. The				hopes forward thinking younger people will drive
super-district has academic authority over the				the risk adverse council toward active and
smaller sub-districts.The strongest supporter of				aggressive risk management.Senator Chambers is
the LB1024 is the State's strongest proponent of				the longest serving Senator in the Nebraska
desegregation. Why did Senator Ernie Chambers				Unicameral. He is 69 years old and suffered racial
of the State's 11th district support the bill? He				slurs and isolation from fellow senators when he
claimed the Omaha school district is already				took office. Slurs and threats, chalked on his
segregated. Segregation re-occurred with the end				capitol office door, remain and he considers these
of bussing in 1999. Yet, no Omaha high school is				a badge. He does not appear on the senate floor
more than 48 percent African American.Bellevue				in suit and tie. He wears blue jeans and sweat
Mayor Jerry Ryan acknowledged the drain on city				shirts in protest to conformity. However, Senator
funds fighting to redraw school district lines. The				Chambers seems to exist in an era when racism
fight in Bellevue and Papillion is over federal dollars				and segregation were the norm. He rarely seeks
to schools with a population of children of military				coalition with other senators preferring to be a
families. Offutt Air Force Base is located near				voice of defiance [15].These two leaders view the
Bellevue and military dependent children attend				future differently. While one hopes to achieve the
elementary and secondary schools in both cities.				future by recruiting younger forward thinking
Redrawing district lines would result in more				people into the political system, the other remains
federal money to the Bellevue Public School				rooted in the past. Neither manages the future
District.Strategic Thinking and VisionReading the				proactively but approach the future based on
paragraphs above may leave the reader asking,				present and past experiences not through
"What were they thinking?" Recall the paradox of				information seeking, strategic thinking, and
predicting the future affects the present in				visionary mental modeling.ConclusionThis paper
adverse ways, yet successful leaders operate as				discussed strategy, strategic thinking and vision
though the future is now.Another view is that				making, planning, and the future. These are not
nothing turns out exactly as expected. This may				separate activities although the discussion
leave leaders in an action quandary: Strategic				presents them individually. By recognizing the
thinking in the midst of shifting paradigms servers				Lorenz Attractor as a spiral of interacting parts of
to help organizations "identify, respond to, and				an organization, one can also find this model fits a
influence changes in its environment."Strategic				non-linear process of thinking, vision, and planning.
thinking allows leaders to think in terms of				Seeing the future as an evolving present helps
opportunities to innovate and influence their future				leaders comprehend that rigid policies based on
and the future of their organization. Strategic				formalized strategic plans inhibit response to
thinking aids in abandonment of policies and				change.Strategic thinking and vision creation
procedures that are outdated, obsolete, or				suggests that leaders continually test their mental
ineffective.Strategic thinking is having an				model with new thinking and questioning -
awareness of what has not yet taken shape,				progressively looping thinking, vision, and new
having foresight. Foresight has a facet that is an				information into new thinking. This cycle process
individual ability and behavior and it can be a				allows leaders to anticipate disruptions in the
process or activity in business. On a macro level,				business cycle. Leaders who question themselves
foresight is a global practice. Note, reaching a				asking, "what if ..." know "what if ..." These leaders
macro level must pass from micro - individual,				are future seeking and organizations employing
through mezzo - organizational, to reach macro.				these leaders are future seeking learning
Foresight starts with the individual leader seeing or				organizations prepared to change before change
sensing something better [7].Foresight is more				occurs.This paper does not deny the value of
than vision; it is visionary. Being a visionary leader				planning as part of a strategic process. However,
means being provocative and questioning rather				rigid planning that does not calculate the shifting
than seeing answers. Mintzberg, et al (1998) calls				horizon of organizational development leaves the
upon visionary leaders to operate on emotional				company questioning, "What happened," rather
and spiritual resources, values, aspirations, and				than "what's happening."Foresight allows for
commitment. Leaders need a mental image, build				strategic management, forecasting and positioning
a mental model of a desirable future state. The				of an organization. The outcome from foresight in
visionary state is as simple as a dream or				business is the anticipated future becoming an
complex as a written document outlining the				inevitable future.References:1. Gates, B. (1996).
dream in measurable steps.Visionary leaders must				The Road Ahead. New York: Penguin Books.2.
next translate the dream of the desirable future				Taylor, J., Wacker, W. with Means, H. (2000). The
state into a vision they can share with the				Visionary's Handbook: Nine Paradoxes that will
organization. Sharing a vision must be proactive,				Shape the Future of Your Business. New Youk:
must be like a theater performance. Mintzberg, et				Harper-Collins Publishers, Inc.3. Holy Bible. New
al addresses performance by the leader as a				International Version. Bible Online. Retrieved from
rehearsal. Rehearsal is the practice of the vision,				Sanders, T. I. (1998). Strategic Thinking and the
learning everything they can about the vision.				New Science: Planning in the midst of chaos,
Upon becoming comfortable in rehearsal, the				complexity, and change. New York: The Free
leader must openly perform the vision.				Press.5. Mintzberg, M. Ahlstrand, B. & Lampel, J.
Performance brings a dream to life; however,				(1998). Strategy Safari: A guided tour through the
performance has no value without the attending				wilds of strategic Management. New York: The
audience. The organizational audience views the				Free Press.6. Gaspar, J. (2005, August 21-24).
performance while feeling empowered to mimic				Corporate foresight - an attempt to listen to the
the performance. Organizational mimicking of the				voices futures' generations in the strategy making
performance serves as a starting point for				process. Future Studies Department, Corvinus
transformation to a higher state of consciousness,				University of Budapest. Retrieved June 15, 2006
becoming, as Senge [8] describes, a learning				from J. Ryan (personal communication, April 28,
organization.Bellevue, Nebraska is the third largest				2006) in discussion of mayoral leadership strategy
city in the state. Eight years ago, Jerry Ryan				in a metropolitan community.8. Senge, P. M. (1990).
made his first run for Bellevue Mayor winning an				The Fifth Discipline: The art & practice of the
election against a popular mayor. Bellevue's				learning organization. New York: Currency and
population in 1998 was about 29,000.				Doubleday.9. Morgan, G. (1993). Imaginization: The
Improvements in transportation, cost of housing				Art of Creative Management. Newbury Park: Sage
and housing developments, and growth in retail				Publishing, Inc.10. Hill, C. W. L. & Jones, G. R. (1998).
and commercial ventures has caused an explosion				Strategic Management: An integrated approach.
in population to almost 50,000 with an extended				Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.11. Davis, S.
sphere of services into not yet annexed				(1996). Future Perfect. Reading, MA:
developments of an additional population of about				Addison-Wesley.12. Ong Teck Mong, T. (2006,
15,000.In the May 2006 primary, Mayor Ryan [9]				May 7). Anticipating and Managing Change: The
ran against a field of opponents. Mayor Ryan ran				Key to Future Success. Asian Institute of
on the ideal that Bellevue has reached a size that				Management 37th Commencement Ceremonies.
requires a full time mayor devoted to the city.				Retrieved June 16, 2006 from Ernie Chambers.
Opponents, all in their seventies, do not share his				(2006). Wikipedia. Retrieved May 31, 2006 from
view. Mayor Ryan won the majority of primary				Blackman, D. A. and Henderson, S. (2004). How
votes telling the city his vision. In interview with				foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of
Mayor Ryan, he expressed how hard it is to run a				doubting. Futures, 36. 253-266.15. Johnson, T. A.
city of 50,000 part-time. "Citizens think I run the				(2000). An Intellectual and Political Biography of
city. They are not aware that it is the City Council				Nebraska State Senator Ernest Chambers:
that approves all action. And, the City Council				Activist, Statesman, and Humanist, 1937-. Plains
doesn't want a full time mayor," said Ryan in				Humanities Alliance: Events. Retrieved May 31,
interview. "If there is one thing I've failed to do,"				2006 from Nadler, D. A. and Tushman, M. L.
said Ryan, "is adequately share my thinking and				(1997). Competing by Design: The Power of
vision within the council."In the "One City - One				Organizational Architecture. New York: Oxford
School District" battle in Omaha, the school district				University Press.17. Somasegar (No First Name)
argued that incorporation of suburban districts into				(2006, January 21). Strategic Thinking. Retrieved
Omaha would create a broader tax base, allow				June 2, 2006 from Hoffman is a student at
for creation of magnet schools throughout the				Regent University studying toward a Doctor of
district, and more equitably share resources.				Strategic Leadership, holds a MA, Leadership and
Senator Chambers, in support of LB1024, argued				BS, Organizational Communication. He is an adjunct
that schools already segregated would have more				at Bellevue University and Metropolitan
administrative control over their districts to create				Community College.
educational opportunities for racially distinct schools

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The Strategy of Leadership is Thinking, Vision, and Planning - The Future Depends On It